Israel Raises Oil, Again(?)

Yesterday oil speculators found another reason to keep oil prices at their outrageous price. This time the excuse was an Israeli military practice that was reported to be a practice for bombing Iran. This bubble will not last too long, be warned.

The oil price, financial and automotive sector trouble, and rumors about profit warning in Merril Lynch made the Dow close under the 12,000 point mark, the Nasdaq index went down over 2%, and in general, this options expiration day was very negative.

The dollar took another dive today (Forex Tracer made $390, Forex Funnel made about $100) against most major currencies. The USD/CAD rate went up to 1.0170, and that was the only rise of the dollar against a major currency.

Have a great weekend,
Nadav

nadavs

Bull and Bear Markets

When you read financial newspapers, you often encounter the term "bull market" or "bear market". Also, you can read about "bulls" and "bears". However, as you know, animals don't trade in the currency markets, so it means something else.

A bull market is a market where prices are going up. For example, the stock market was a bull market in the years 2003-2007. A bear market is a time of declining prices and uncertainty in the market, like after the dot com bubble crash.

The forex market does not have official bull and bear markets because currencies do not have a long term tendency to rise like stocks. However, If an analyst or a forex broker says he's "bullish" on a currency, it means that he believes that this currency will rise over currencies. If an analyst says he's "bearish" on a currency, it means that he believes that this currency will go down against others.

Catch the bulls,
Nadav

nadavs

Short Selling

Sometimes you want to enter a trade, but you don't have the right currencies. For example, your accound is funded with US dollars, and you think the dollar is going to rise over the Euro, so you want to "sell" the EUR/USD pair, meaning selling Euros and buying dollars. However, you don't have Euros to sell.

To get over this problem, your forex broker allows you to do "short selling". This means you sell something you don't have, and you agree to buy it later. This enables you to profit when something is going down. You sell it now, at a high price, and buy it when the price is lower. "Buy low, sell high". You do exactly that, but in reverse.

This order is common also on the stock market, so people can profit from a down market. However, it is not always available, and the risks are much greater (in theory, there is an unlimited loss). Also, if the price suddenly goes up, you may not be able to buy back the stock, and you'll be left with a huge loss.

Most good forex systems "know" that short selling is possible. This way you can benefit both ways - when a currency goes up, and when it goes back down.

Hope you learned something new today.
Nadav

nadavs