The Week Ahead: Second Week of June

The forex market opened yesterday with a rise of the EUR/USD to over 1.5760 (Forex Tracer managed to make another $390 off that move). Asian traders did not calm down from the disappointing job report and made the dollar dive.

Ahead of us is a week full of information with two major indicators: retail sales and the CPI. The retail sales indicator tells how much retail sales have grown over the last month, and it is a good indicator of consumer spending. High retail sales means consumers are spending more, and so expanding the economy. A negative figure tells that consumers spent less last month than two months ago. It's not that great, but as long as it doesn't continue, it's fine.

The CPI is the number everyone waits for. It stands for Consumer Price Index, and it measures the change in price of certain goods and services. This number is very important because it is a gauge for inflation. This month it's extremely important, because of May's job report. If the number is negative, it can signal about an upcoming recession. If it's near-flat, it means prices have not risen too much. If it's high, it can signal an upcoming stagflation, a combination of stagnation and inflation. Those two economic situations should cancel each other, but when they show up together, they are really hard to recover from. Beware of the bears.

Have a great week,
Nadav

nadavs